Spurs Game 5 Prediction | Four Factors Analysis

The Reality

San Antonio is 3-1 down and must win Game 5 at home. The model puts their series comeback probability at 5.3% based on current Finals performance. But if they win G5, odds improve to 9.6% to 18.4%.

Model Convergence: All Parameters Converged ✓

The MCMC sampler ran 4 parallel chains. The Gelman-Rubin statistic (Rhat) measures convergence. All parameters show Rhat < 1.05 — the posterior estimates are reliable.

Which Four Factors Drive Spurs Wins

Green bars help, red bars hurt. eFG% is overwhelmingly dominant (β=+1.69, 100% confidence). Turnover % is the second-strongest signal but negative — keeping turnovers low is critical.

What Game 5 Success Looks Like: Series Comeback Odds

These bars show the probability of winning the entire series (need 3 straight: G5H, G6A, G7H) under three performance scenarios. Red = Finals-level. Gray = improvement. Blue-gray = playoff-average.

The Four Factors Explained

1. Effective FG% (eFG%) — Critical

Finals avg (G1-G4)

53.4%

Playoff win avg

57.1%

eFG% = (FG + 0.5×3P) / FGA. The single strongest predictor of wins.

2. Turnover % (TOV%) — Critical

Finals avg (G1-G4)

14.7%

Playoff win avg

12.1%

TOV% = TOV / (FGA + 0.44×FTA + TOV). Reducing turnovers is essential.

Game 5 Implied Odds

+260

Based on 27.9% win probability (Finals avg).

If Spurs Win G5 (get to 3-2)

+420

Series odds improve to 9.6% to 18.4%.

The Model

Three-Hierarchy Bayesian HLM with Four Factors

Data: 25 games (4 Finals, 3 pre-Finals NYK, 18 other playoffs)

Features: eFG%, TOV%, ORB%, FT Rate, Home/Away — all pace-neutral.

Sampler: 4 parallel MCMC chains. All parameters converged (Rhat < 1.05).

Key insight: NYK Finals base rate is 33.6% vs 68.7% playoff average. Beating the Knicks is categorically harder.